Sunday, September 30, 2018

So Much Despair, So Much Hype: The 2018 Blue Jays Season


"There is no joy in Mudville. Mighty Casey has struck out." - "Casey At The Bat" by Ernest Thayer


That line always plays in my mind after every losing season. That poem, for over 120 years, has encapsulated the ups and downs of baseball more than any sportswriter could.

For the 2018 Jays, there were very few ups. Only five things stand out as positives in my mind, at first glance. 

Vlad Jr.'s walk-off home run in the final at bat of Spring Training, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s big break out performance in July, Morales' home run streak, Ryan Borucki's pitching, and the 7-run comeback in the 9th six games ago.

Everything else, besides a good April (15-9) was not horrible (that label goes to the entire Orioles season)it was just purely mediocre and absolutely forgettable.

Our hitters didn't hit, our top 2 pitchers were too injured to pitch, we lost our closer (one of the youngest and best in baseball) to an off field controversy, and our best players were nowhere to be seen, either because they were traded in July, or couldn't stay healthy.

There was nothing exciting about this team, nothing exceptional, no matter where you looked.

But if you happened to look at our farm system...well, it was a whole different story.

Three of our minor league teams made it to the post-season: Dunedin BJays, Lansing Lugnuts, and New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Our High A and AA teams are studded with promising prospects, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a whole another level.

That is not mere pretty hyperbole. Not only is he the son of new Hall of Famer Vlad Sr. Not only is he considered the No. 1 prospect in baseball by every major publication who follows prospects. In 91 games, at just 19 years of age, he dominated the minors, hitting an incredible .381 at AA and AAA. Had he not missed a month due to injury, there's a very real possibility that he would've hit over .400 for the season.

The lengths that Jays President Mark Shapiro took to maximize the years under team control by holding down in the minors is absolutely ridiculous. With Donaldson and Solarte injured, we had to watch Russell Martin play 3rd base, rather than call up Vlad. I don't blame the front office. The arbitration rules in this instance are stupid and need to be changed post haste.

But the media circus that followed the next face of Canadian baseball shed some light on several of our other good prospects on the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, of which there are many, considering that they won the Eastern League Championship a couple weeks back.

 Bo Bichette everyone already knew, because he is the other crown jewel of our farm system. But then Cavan Biggio found his bat this year. Harold Ramirez also broke out. Lourdes Gurriel was brought right up to the majors to replace a slumping Devon Travis and looked right at home immediately.

Pitchers T.J. Zeuch, Jordan Romano, Sean Reid Foley, Patrick Murphy and Jon Harris were also being talked about all over the Jays blogosphere. Nate Pearson would've been in the conversation as well, if he hadn't gotten injured and missed the whole season. Thankfully he's being given reps at the Arizona Fall League.

Ryan Borucki was called up mid season and was impressive. Rowdy Tellez and Danny Jansen were putting up solid numbers, wih Tellez hitting doubles everywhere.

On top all those guys, Kevin Smith had a huge year. Ryan Noda also got on base a lot.

Add to that, our new guys were making waves too. 17 year old Eric Padinho pitched very well in his first crack at pro ball. Our first pick at the 2018 MLB Draft, Jordan Groshans, hit the ground running in his first year, hitting so well, that he jumped up a level. We also signed Orelvez Martinez, one of the top prospects from the  Dominican Republic, this year.

No wonder Baseball America named our farm system third best in all of baseball!

Want to know the last time that the Jays system was this good? 1993. I'm sure everyone can grasp the significance of that.

So the Jays have been horrible, but our prospects have been great.

But prospects are prospects. Prospects only really matter to many people until as they're good in the MLB.

I'm sure we all remember the forgotten promises of Brett Lawrie, Travis Snider, Ricky Romero and Colby Rasmus.

But you can't have future stars without prospects. It's the life cycle of all pro sports.

It's impossible to not be optimistic about our current crop of youngsters. Even if only a handful of guys make it, it's better than hanging everything on Vlad. One superstar doesn't win games, but many good players do.

Look no further than the Athletics, Braves, Phillies, Mariners, and Rays for proof. There's even quite a bit of evidence on our home turf.

Borucki has been very solid. If not for a lack of run support, he would've won more than he lost. Tellez and Jansen have looked very solid. Gurriel seemed to get better with each game. His .281 average wouldn't look as impressive, if you didn't know that he was sent back down to the minors and missed a month to injury.

Teoscar Hernandez has looked lost in left field and at the plate this season, but 20+ home runs is nothing to sneeze at.

The Jays are in a unique position here, to almost completely rebuild the team next year with raw. talented players. But no team would put out an all rookie line-up. Conventional wisdom dictates that a mix of veterans and younger guys works best. There is also the problem of all those pesky contracts to Martin, Morales and Tulo. Let's assume that Smoak and Morales are the only locks. What would the 2019 Blue Jays look like?

Yes, I am not making predictions on who will be our manager. It seems highly likely that Canadian Stubby Clapp will be the new Jays skipper, but there are many candidates.

Putting Biggio, Vlad and Bichette alone into our lineup would dramatically improve our offense. Add in Hernandez's raw power, Gurriel's untapped potential, Tellez and Jansen's solid bats, and Anthony Alford's speed, and you have a lineup that can (potentially) rival any team.

Assuming that Teoscar can be moved to DH eventually, our defense would also improve.

Pitching is our biggest problem. Paradinho is 3 years away. Reid-Foley, Panone have been inconsistent, and Pearson and T.J. Zeuch are also years away.

Even if the worst should happen and the team falls flat on it's face, by 2020 we will have lots of money freed up to go sign some free agents to fix our weaknesses.

Not even Vlad, as good as he is, is a sure thing. But the odds are definitely stacked in our favor.

We've seen many teams over the years turn into perennial contenders. The Astros, Cubs and Red Sox weren't always the teams they are now. The Orioles, by far the worst MLB team, made the playoffs just 4 years ago.

2015 and 2016 were great, and those banners will always be a reminder of how great Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson were. Happ and Estrada too. Can't forget about Gibby!

But players can't be great forever. It's really painful to watch this team be dismantled, but it's necessary/ I think a lot of the anger directed at Shapiro and Atkins has less to do with losing, and more to do with disliking change.

Anyone else remember when Anthopoulos' big trade in the 2012 off-season backfired, and we tanked for two years? I think Shapiro has done as good a job. The only big difference is the lack of surprising trades and an unwillingness to trade prospects for short term gain.

It's time for new faces, new memories, new games.

It's time for Vlad 2.0 . Let the Age of Plakata begin!


Heck, bring on all the kids, let's see what they've got!